Oscar Picks From Joe Movie-Lover

'Ello, you lucky people!

While still coming down from the high of seeing the despised New England Patriots get spanked to death at the hands of a much better prepared New Jersey Giants team (they play in Newark lest we forget), I decided to weigh in on this year's Oscars and pick the winners for that as well. Last year I was ecstatic as it was the first time since I cared about such things that the Best Picture award went to movie I wanted to win. The Departed won 4 awards and they were very well deserved. This year is the first year I've ever seen all five nominated films before the Oscars, and more than that, the first year I've wanted to see all of them. Last year I saw 3/5 which tends to be the percentage and I'm okay with that. I didn't see The Queen or Letters From Iwo Jima, and honestly still could give two shits about them. This year, however, all five movies looked good and were good. Now I will give you my impression of all five movies and predictions for this year's awards that will hopefully be televised.


No Country For Old Men
This is my all out favorite of the nominated. This odd, existential, western thriller based on the Cormac McCarthy novel of the same name would have totally worked as a straight forward chase movie if not for the final act where everything falls apart and even the characters don't know why. The Coen's films are all about the end of something, some era in Americana. This film surely depicts the death of the "Old West." The mentality of good triumphing over evil despite the odds is what one would expect from a Western, and surely the expectation is there to the average movie watcher. But the reason this movie is so amazing is watching Tommy Lee Jones' character of Ed Tom Bell as he watches the complete destruction of everything he holds true and decent about the world. Javier Bardem will surely win Best Supporting Actor, there's almost no contest. The Coens should win Best Director(s) and I'd like to see them win Best Adapted Screenplay as well.
Odds of winning Best Picture: 2:1 Everything about this movie is solid. The only thing it has against it is that the Departed won last year.

There Will Be Blood
I'm not going to lie, I am not a fan of Paul Thomas Anderson. I think he's too showy without actually showing anything. "Pretentious" and "lengthy" are the words I would use to describe his previous films. He's basically Quentin Tarantino without the burden of being entertaining. They both say "Look what I can do," but at least QT never tries to make you believe you're watching something other wackiness. All that being said, I was pleasantly surprised with PTA's
most recent outing. Extremely loosely based on the book "Oil!" by Upton Sinclaire, Blood is actually far less about the oil industry than it is about the psyches of scarred men. Daniel Day-Lewis (a shoe-in for best actor) plays Daniel Plainview with equal parts savvy, sadness, and sadism. You watch this successful businessman get continually let down by people in his life and turn right around and let someone down himself. By film's end, you can't decide whether you hated him or just felt sorry for him. Throughout the film, I was impressed both with this acting tour-de-force but also with Anderson's slow, methodical direction and the great cinematography. Also noteworthy is the score by Radiohead guitarist Johnny Greenwood. Bottom line for me is that, while the parts were all fantastic, I wasn't sure where everything was going or why it got to where it ended up.
Best Picture Odds: 5:2 It could be the dark horse and win thanks to its critical reception, but I kinda doubt it.

Atonement
British period dramas are not normally my cup of tea, if you'll excuse the obvious joke. In fact, my eyes begin to roll at the very mention of Jane Austin. How come all over her books were titled "Something & Something That Sounds Similar?" Just me? Not knowing about Atonement before I saw it, other than it was a British period piece, I think aided greatly to my loving it. Based on a novel I'd never heard of by the guy who wrote The Good Son with Macauley Culkin and Elijah Wood, this film starts out as your average rich-people-coming-of-age-and-falling-in-love story but quickly becomes the saddest and most hauntingly beautiful love-loss-and-regret films I've ever seen. I especially liked the depiction of larger themes, such as the dark side of the aftermath of World War II on the exhausted, malnourished British soldiers, while never losing sight of the intimate story of three people torn apart by a single moment. This movie punches you in the gut and, had I the ability, I probably would have cried. There's a 7-minute long tracking shot that alone should garner the film Best Cinematography.
Best Picture Odds: 8:1 Despite how great I think this film is, it totally got robbed in the nominations, which to me means that the Academy doesn't think as highly of it as it might. Joe Wright deserved a Best Director nom as did both James McAvoy and Keira Knightley. It will probably win some technical awards, but not best picture.

Juno
Pithy dialogue and pop-culture references are to me like breathing air or drinking beer. I cannot get enough of either one. This is easily my number two favorite in the race. Juno is a very funny and touching story with no convoluted plots or too much pathos. Everyone's been comparing it to Little Miss Sunshine mostly just because it's a quirky family comedy, but I definitely think Juno has more to offer. It doesn't fall into that all-too-common indie comedy trap of just being dry for the sake of dryness. There's a big difference between being dry and being real and this film's real strength comes from the performances of its great cast. Plus, it's sweet, which none of the other films nominated are. Office worker-turned-stripper-turned-novelist-turned-screenwriter Diablo Cody delivers the most solid and well-written screenplay of any that I've seen this year (I haven't seen all the movies nominated for best screenplay, I admit) but I think it'd be a travesty not to give the new girl the golden bald guy. I realized just now that if Kevin Smith would not be quite as dirty, he'd probably get Oscar nominations too. Leave in all the swear words you want, but leave out the donkey show stuff.
Best Picture Odds: 10:1 As loved as it is, the movie is a comedy and comedies, even dramatic ones, only win Best Picture once in a dog's age. Could this be that age? Perhaps. Though I wouldn't make book on it.

Michael Clayton
Legal thrillers are usually far more legal than thrilling. Hell, any movie made out of a John Grisham book is going to have legalese dripping from the walls. Michael Clayton is not this at all. In fact, there's really only one scene where legal jargon is spewed in any real sense. What the film really is is the study of the lengths people will go to cover something up, and the inner turmoil of basically good people. The film was written and directed by Tony Gilroy, best known perhaps for penning the screenplays to the Bourne films, and marks the writer's directorial debut. Definitely a solid outing, though from a script standpoint, it never seemed like the stakes should have been as high as they ended up being. George Clooney sells it, though. I'll say it right now: I would have George Clooney's babies. I would devote all the money and time it took to making that scientifically possible and carry and birth his children. He can do no wrong. He probably won't win, it's really DDL's year, but he turned in another stellar performance he should be proud of.
Best Picture Odds: 20:1 This is the most straight forward of the nominated films, which I think will hurt it the most. There's absolutely nothing wrong with it, but proficiency doesn't necessarily make a best picture. It is a critical darling so we can't count it out entirely, but I'd be incredibly surprised if it won.

Some movies I think got robbed were Eastern Promises (despite Viggo's much-deserved acting nod) and Zodiac which was actually by very favorite film of the year, but it was released in February '07 , negating its chances of being nominated for anything.

These predictions are merely what I see happening. Can I get lucky enough to get what I want out of the Superbowl AND the Oscars? Given previous experience, no. But here's one prediction you can take to the bank: Ratatouille will win best animated film. I welcome any and all opinions on this, so comment away.

Talk at ya later and keep circulating the tapes.